The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is eligible to seek reelection. He publicly stated his interest with the slogan "Keep America Great" and has an ongoing campaign. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Video United States presidential election, 2020
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.
The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. However, former presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush (both nonagenarians), having each served a single term as president, are not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election.
Demographic trends
The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.
A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians/others, and "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.
Additionally, Washington, D.C. may lower its voting age from 18 to 16. Legislation was introduced by City Councilman Charles Allen in April 2018, with a public hearing expected for June, and a vote by the end of the year. Unlike other cities with a voting age of 16 such as Berkeley, California, this would allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote for President of the United States for the first time in 2020. Allen said that he was inspired by the high school students that participated in the March for Our Lives, which occurred at the capital in March.
Simultaneous elections
The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election. Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.
Advantage of incumbency
An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against President Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against President George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.
Maps United States presidential election, 2020
General election polling
Nominations
Republican Party
Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and intends to do so. His reelection campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign". On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.
Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party. A poor showing for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections may lead to an influx of ambitious politicians vying to reclaim the nomination from Trump, as Arizona Senator John McCain has said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president." Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have all expressed doubts that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say." Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Flake has claimed that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.
Declared major candidates
The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.
Other declared candidates
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
- Mark Cuban, businessman and investor from Texas
Potential candidates
- Steve Bannon, Senior Counselor to the President in 2017
- Bob Corker, U.S. Senator from Tennessee since 2007
- Ann Coulter, conservative social and political commentator, writer, syndicated columnist, and lawyer from Connecticut
- Carly Fiorina, businesswoman; candidate for President in 2016; candidate for Vice President in 2016; Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from California in 2010
- Jeff Flake, U.S. Senator from Arizona since 2013; U.S. Representative 2001-2013
- Trey Gowdy, U.S. Representative from South Carolina since 2011
- Eric Greitens, Governor of Missouri since 2017
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative 1983-2001; candidate for President in 2000 and in 2016
- Bill Kristol, Chief of Staff to the Vice President 1989-1993
- Colin Powell, U.S. Secretary of State 2001-2005
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; candidate for President in 2016
- Ben Sasse, U.S. Senator from Nebraska since 2015
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey 2010-2018; candidate for President in 2016 (endorsed Donald Trump)
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas since 2015; U.S. Representative 2013-2015
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; candidate for President in 2016 (endorsed Donald Trump)
- Nikki Haley, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations since 2017; Governor of South Carolina 2011-2017
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for President in 2016
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States since 2017; Governor of Indiana 2013-2017; U.S. Representative 2001-2013 (endorsed Donald Trump)
- Austin Petersen, producer, writer, political activist, and commentator; candidate for U.S. Senate from Missouri in 2018; candidate for President in 2016
- Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts 2003-2007; candidate for U.S. Senate from Utah in 2018 and Republican nominee from Massachusetts in 1994; candidate for President in 2008 and Republican nominee in 2012
- Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House since 2015; U.S. Representative from Wisconsin since 1999; Republican nominee for Vice President in 2012 (endorsed Donald Trump)
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin since 2011; candidate for President in 2016 (endorsed Donald Trump)
- Meg Whitman, business executive, political activist, and philanthropist; Republican nominee for Governor of California in 2010
- Oprah Winfrey, media proprietor, talk show host, actress, producer, and philanthropist from California
Potential convention sites
Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.
- Charlotte, North Carolina
- Las Vegas, Nevada
Endorsements
- Donald Trump
Primary election polling
Democratic Party
After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election. The party was further splintered by the DNC Chair election in February 2017 between moderate Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison. Perez ended up winning the leadership position, with Ellison being appointed to the primarily ceremonial position of Deputy Chair in order to lessen the divide. This race was mirrored in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election where the establishment, Clinton-backed Ralph Northam won the party's primary against Sanders-backed Tom Perriello. Meanwhile there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.
Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field will likely go into double-digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates. Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her memorable speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards.
The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, and senator Sanders; who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party.
Declared major candidates
The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.
Other declared candidates
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
- Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States 2009-2017; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973-2009; candidate for President in 1988 and in 2008
- Julian Castro, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 2014-2017; Mayor of San Antonio, Texas 2009-2014
- Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles, California since 2013
- Luis Gutiérrez, U.S. Representative from Illinois since 1993
- John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003-2011
- Eric Holder, U.S. Attorney General 2009-2015; Acting U.S. Attorney General in 2001
- John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State 2013-2017; U.S. Senator from Massachusetts 1985-2013; Democratic nominee for President in 2004
- Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts 2007-2015
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991-2007; candidate for President in 2016
- Tom Steyer, billionaire hedge fund manager, philanthropist, environmentalist, progressive activist, and fundraiser from California
Potential candidates
- Richard Blumenthal, U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2011
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006-2013
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana since 2013
- Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana since 2012
- Lincoln Chafee, Governor of Rhode Island 2011-2015; U.S. Senator 1999-2007; candidate for President in 2016
- Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina since 2017
- Stormy Daniels, pornographic actress, stripper, screenwriter, and director from Louisiana
- John Bel Edwards, Governor of Louisiana since 2016
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii since 2013
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California since 2017
- Bob Iger, businessman from California
- Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri 2013-2017; Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Caroline Kennedy, U.S. Ambassador to Japan 2013-2017
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007
- Terry McAuliffe, Governor of Virginia 2014-2018
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon since 2009
- Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland 2007-2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999-2007; candidate for President in 2016
- Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative from Ohio since 2003
- Adam Schiff, U.S. Representative from California since 2001
- Nina Turner, Ohio State Senator 2008-2014
- Antonio Villaraigosa, Mayor of Los Angeles, California 2005-2013; candidate for Governor of California in 2018
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2009; Governor 2002-2006
- Frederica Wilson, U.S. Representative from Florida since 2011
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Jerry Brown, Governor of California since 2011 and 1975-1983; Mayor of Oakland 1999-2007; candidate for President in 1976, 1980, and 1992
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio since 2007; U.S. Representative 1993-2007
- Chelsea Clinton, First Daughter of the United States 1993-2001
- Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State 2009-2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001-2009; candidate for President in 2008 and Democratic nominee in 2016
- George Clooney, actor, director, producer, screenwriter, activist, businessman, and philanthropist from Kentucky
- Mark Cuban, businessman and investor from Texas
- Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York since 2011; U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 1997-2001
- Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York City, New York since 2014
- Jamie Dimon, business executive from Illinois
- Al Franken, U.S. Senator from Minnesota 2009-2018
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York since 2009; U.S. Representative 2007-2009
- Al Gore, Vice President of the United States 1993-2001; U.S. Senator from Tennessee 1985-1993; U.S. Representative 1977-1985; candidate for President in 1988 and Democratic nominee in 2000
- Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington since 2013; U.S. Representative 1993-1995 and 1999-2012
- Dwayne Johnson, actor, producer, and semi-retired professional wrestler from Florida
- Tim Kaine, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2013; Governor 2006-2010; Mayor of Richmond 1998-2001; Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2016
- Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts since 2013
- Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans, Louisiana since 2010
- Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts since 2015
- Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2013; U.S. Representative 2007-2013
- Gavin Newsom, Lieutenant Governor of California since 2011; Mayor of San Francisco 2004-2011; candidate for Governor in 2018
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States 2009-2017
- Sheryl Sandberg, technology executive, activist, and author from California
- Joe Scarborough, U.S. Representative from Florida 1995-2001
- Howard Schultz, businessman from New York
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013
- Maxine Waters, U.S. Representative from California since 1991
- Meg Whitman, business executive, political activist, and philanthropist; Republican nominee for Governor of California in 2010
- Oprah Winfrey, media proprietor, talk show host, actress, producer, and philanthropist from California
- Mark Zuckerberg, computer programmer and Internet entrepreneur from California
Potential convention sites
Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.
- Atlanta, Georgia
- Birmingham, Alabama
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Endorsements
Primary election polling
Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates
Libertarian Party
Declared candidates
Potential candidates
- Bill Weld, Governor of Massachusetts 1991-1997; Libertarian nominee for Vice President in 2016
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Gary Johnson, Governor of New Mexico 1995-2003; Libertarian nominee for President in 2012 and in 2016
- Austin Petersen, producer, writer, political activist, and commentator; candidate for U.S. Senate from Missouri in 2018; candidate for President in 2016
Convention Site
On December 10, 2017, the Libertarian National Committee chose Austin, Texas as the site of their 2020 national convention. The convention will be held between May 22-25, 2020.
Green Party
Potential candidates
- Jill Stein, Green nominee for President in 2012 and 2016; Green-Rainbow nominee for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and 2010
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991-2007; candidate for President in 2016
Independent or unaffiliated
Beginning in August 2017, rumors emerged about a possible independent "unity ticket" between governors John Kasich (Republican of Ohio), and John Hickenlooper (Democrat of Colorado) based on their cooperation on healthcare. Playfully given the nicknames "Kasichlooper" and "The Johns," the idea of a joint ticket was shot down by both governors. Hickenlooper commenting "it's fun to talk about, but it's not in the cards." With Kasich quipping "Look, Kasich-Hickenlooper, first of all, you couldn't pronounce it and second of all, you couldn't fit it on a bumper sticker [...] the answer is no."
Declared candidates
Withdrawn candidates
- Jeremy Gable, playwright from Pennsylvania. Withdrew candidacy on September 5, 2017.
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
- Roseanne Barr, actress, comedian, writer, and television producer; Peace and Freedom nominee for President in 2012
- Mark Cuban, businessman and investor from Texas
Potential candidates
- Jeff Flake, U.S. Senator from Arizona since 2013; U.S. Representative 2001-2013
- Bob Iger, businessman from California
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City, New York 2002-2013
- Tim Cook, business executive, industrial engineer, and developer from California
- John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003-2011
- Dwayne Johnson, actor, producer, and semi-retired professional wrestler from Florida
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative 1983-2001; candidate for President in 2000 and in 2016
- Steve Kerr, professional basketball coach and former player from California
- Gregg Popovich, professional basketball coach from Indiana
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991-2007; candidate for President in 2016
- Joe Scarborough, U.S. Representative from Florida 1995-2001
- Mark Zuckerberg, computer programmer and Internet entrepreneur from California
Maps
See also
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2018
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2020
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States Senate elections, 2020
Notes
References
Source of the article : Wikipedia
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